The Anthem, Arizona Real Estate market is my JAM and I can’t wait to reflect on 2019 AND share our projections for 2020.
Hey, welcome back! I’m Lindsay, a proud Anthem resident and your local REALTOR® with the Wise Move AZ Team at Realty ONE Group. If you want to stay up to date on all things Anthem and Real Estate then you need to subscribe to our YouTube Channel. Pro Tip: You’re also going to want to hit that little bell icon while you’re there so that you’re the first to know when our new videos are posted every single Thursday!
If you’ve visited our blog before, chances are you know just how excited we get about life in Anthem. In fact, you might be sick of hearing how much we love Anthem. Our career in real estate was sparked by our love of this beautiful community we are so proud to call home, and it is fueled everyday by the strength of the market here.
We’ve always wanted to share market statistics with our YouTube and blog audiences, but we’ve struggled with the best way to do it. We know that the numbers bring value, particularly if you are planning to buy or sell within the not so distant future, but we also know that rattling off numbers might, ummm …bore you to death!
But with the start of a new year, and a new decade, we decided we needed to reflect on what’s going on in the market and share our thoughts for the upcoming year. Carolynn and I are nerds when it comes to statistics, and there were so many different directions we could have taken this video. I promise we put a lot of thought and energy into sharing what we believe to be only the most valuable ‘at a glance’ stats.
The ‘R’ Word
There is a lot of talk in the real estate community about the dreaded ‘r’ word, but Carolynn and I decided it wouldn’t be valuable if we just contributed to the noise already out there. We aren’t economists, and we don’t want to pretend to be, but if our experience has taught us anything, we know that some Anthem residents will need to sell their homes and newcomers will be excitedly waiting to take their place. It’s that cool here! And even if there is a recession, downturn, or correction, due to the very limited supply in Anthem, we will be buffered. So, we decided the true value of this video lied in being laser focused on the Anthem market.
So without further adieu let’s take a look at what happened in Anthem’s Real Estate market in 2019.
As you may or may not know, Anthem is a one-of-a-kind Master Planned Community just north of Phoenix. The community is made up of 7 distinct areas, all with their own unique charm and features. These areas include:
- Anthem Country Club
- Anthem Parkside East
- Anthem Parkside West (including Circle Mountain Ranch)
- Arroyo Grande
- The Landings
- The Village
I think at this point we’ve done video tours of almost all of these areas. If that interests you, you can check out our Anthem playlist on YouTube here.
We decided that this video would be WAY too long if looked at stats for each of these different areas, even if it would make our nerdy hearts sing. So, in the interest of time, the stats we are sharing in this video will be for Anthem as a whole. If you would like these stats for a particular area within Anthem, let us know by comment below or by email at Team@WiseMoveAZ.com, and we will happily get that information to you.
In talking to past and present clients they told us that the most valuable stats would be:
- The number of homes sold
- The average sales prices
- The average sales prices per square foot
- The average days on market
- How close homes sold to their listing price (sale to list price ratio)
Number of Homes Sold
So, let’s take a look at the number of homes sold on a monthly basis.
As you can see, in 2019 a total of 909 homes sold. This number follows a similar trend year after year in Anthem. We start the year relatively slow, with sales growing through to May or July, and then tapering off through the end of the year.
The high volume of sales in the Summer months tends to correlate with families wanting to settle before the start of the school year and snowbirds wanting to have a home in place for the winter season. In 2020, we expect to see a similar pattern, i.e. a peak in the summer months. That being said, it is hard to say whether more homes will sell in 2020 than were sold in 2019. Anthem continues to have low inventory, and if that doesn’t increase, well, as you can imagine, it’s pretty hard for us to sell homes that aren’t for sale…
Average Sale Price
Next, let’s take a look at the average sale prices in Anthem, month over month.
This graph shows the low, average, and high sales prices each month in 2019. We started the year with an average sales price of roughly $346K and finished with an average of roughly $363K. That’s an increase of roughly 5% from the start of the year to the end of the year, and as you can see from the graph, prices are tracking upwards. As homeowners in Anthem we are excited at the thought of our homes appreciating year over year; however, as REALTORS® we know that prices can only grow so much before it starts to raise other concerns in the market.
We feel strongly that prices will continue to rise modestly, as a whole through 2020. This is evidence of the Phoenix Metro Area continuing to see more and more people moving into the area.
Average Sale Price Per Square Foot
Average sales price only says so much, and it can’t really account for the difference between a mansion and a starter home. As REALTORS® we often like to look at the average price per square foot when looking at the state of the market. This can create a more level comparison between properties, although it’s by no means a perfect comparison.
That being said, as you can see on this graph the average price per square foot also tracked up throughout 2019. The year started with an average of $152.17 per square foot, and ended with an average of $163.53 per square foot. That’s a difference of more than $10 per square foot! Much like the average sales price, we expect sale price per square foot to continue a steady increase throughout 2020.
Average Days on Market
Another interesting statistic is average cumulative days on market. This gives an indication of how long a home sat on the market before closing. It is important to note that this statistic is also imperfect. If a home is marked as ‘Pending’ when it goes under contract it stops accumulating days on the market. However, if a property is marked ‘UCB’, ‘Under Contract Accepting Backups’, ‘CCBS’, or ‘Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale’ it continues to accrue days on market until the day of closing. This figure can still give us a good sense of how long homes are sitting on the market here in beautiful Anthem, Arizona.
As you can see the days on market fluctuated in the first half of the year, with a dip in May, followed by a steady decline of days on market in August through to the end of the year.
What does this mean? It means that, on average, homes were selling faster when they hit the market at the end of the year, than at the start of the year. This might seem counter intuitive. Prices were higher AND the homes are selling faster! Doesn’t that go against basic economic principles? The short answer is no! The piece that is missing in this picture is that inventory was uncharacteristically low in Anthem this year. The low supply may have driven the prices up and forced people to make quicker decisions when they found the right house.
Sale to List Price Ratio
Lastly, people are always curious how close homes sell to their list price. In 2019, home sold for an average of 99% of list price. Some buyers may find this disheartening, as they feel like there is little room to negotiate, and in some cases that may be true. But, it doesn’t account for the fact that some homes are priced way too high when they first hit the market and they don’t sell until it’s been reduced to within 1% of the market value. You’re probably sick of hearing us say this, but it just speaks to making sure that you are working with an agent who has local expertise and knows the value of homes in an area. This is important for both buyers and sellers.
Long story short it was a good time to be a Seller in Anthem in 2019 and we suspect the same will be true at least for the first half of 2020. Buyers, this doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s a bad time for you to buy, it just means that you need to be diligent and informed. You need to be ready to make a move quickly when the right home hits the market, and you also need to make sure that you’re working with a REALTOR® with local expertise, who can ensure that you are not overpaying for the home.
So, there you have it! What do you think? Will 2020 be the year that you make a move to Anthem? Or if you already live here, are you thinking about selling? I can think of a few things I could do with an extra 5% of my home’s value in the bank. Overall, it is a very exciting time to be living and working in the community we love so much. If you have any questions on how these numbers impact you, please let me know. You can find our contact information in the description box below.
If all of this has you thinking, ‘yeah, I could consider a move to Anthem’, then you’ll definitely want to download our guide to HOA fees throughout Anthem.
See YOU, next Thursday!