Congratulations everyone, we have officially made it to Q3 of 2020. Normally that doesn’t feel like much of an accomplishment but 2020 has been a wild one. So, I think we should celebrate!
…and what better way to celebrate than looking at the latest Anthem, Arizona real estate stats.
Am I right?
If this is your first time here, welcome! If you’ve been here before, thank you so much for coming back and spending your time with me. My name is Lindsay and I‘m to be your Anthem, Arizona REALTOR® with the Wise Move AZ Team at Realty ONE Group. On our blog and YouTube channel we have a lot of fun talking about all things Anthem and real estate every single Thursday, and we absolutely love having you along for the ride.
Our last market update video was released on July 16, and I don’t know about you but it feels like so much has changed… and nothing has changed, all at the same time. We’re still navigating COVID, we have the upcoming Presidential election, and everything just feels a little volatile right now. Anyways, I promise, I am going to stay in my lane and talk about real estate. Although, these current events impact the housing market, I want to make this analysis data based rather than speculative.
I’ll do my best to give an indication of what I think we can expect for the remainder of 2020 and the first part of 2021, but let’s be honest, making predictions in 2020 seems…mmmm futile?
As always, we put a lot of thought into what statistics would be most valuable to you and how we can best assess the impact on our market to date.
You’ll see that we’ve included a few key indicators throughout 2018 and 2019. This is to give a baseline. We’ll then compare to this year, using the numbers from January 2020 to September 2020, and provide some year-over-year comparisons.
As you may or may not know, Anthem is a one-of-a-kind Master Planned Community just north of Phoenix. The community is made up of 7 distinct areas, all with their own unique charm and features. These areas include:
- Anthem Country Club
- Anthem Parkside East
- Anthem Parkside West (including Circle Mountain Ranch)
- Arroyo Grande
- The Landings
- And The Village
I think at this point we’ve done video tours of almost all of these areas. If that interests you, I will link to our Anthem Neighborhood Tour Playlist here.
We decided that this video would be WAY too long if looked at stats for each of these different areas, even if I would be in stats heaven. So, in the interest of time, the stats we’re sharing in this video will be for Anthem as a whole. If you would like these stats for a particular area within Anthem, let us know by comment below or by email at Team@WiseMoveAZ.com, and we’ll happily get that information to you.
In this video we’ll be using the following key market indicators:
- The number of homes sold
- The average sales prices
- The average sales prices per square foot
- The average days on market
- And how close homes sold to their listing price
NUMBER OF HOMES SOLD
So, let’s take a look at the number of homes sold on a monthly basis.
This graph shows the number of homes sold each month in 2018 in peach, in 2019 in grey, and in 2020 in pink. In 2018 and 2019 the numbers showed a similar trend or cycle. We typically start the year relatively slow, with sales growing through to the end of the summer, and then tapering off through the end of the year.
We mentioned in our last market update that sales were uncharacteristically low in April and May of this year. This was likely due to COVID-19 and the stay at home order that was in place from March 31 to May 15 in Arizona.
Well, guess what! The uncharacteristic trend is still holding strong, but now in the opposite direction! To say I was a bit shocked to see the number of homes sold in September, would be an understatement. This was not only the highest number of homes sold per month in 2020, but it was the highest number of homes sold any month on this whole chart, which goes back as far as January 2018. It even beat May of 2019. September was record breaking for Anthem!
As predicted in our last video, it’s possible that this could be the product of pent up demand. Many of our clients put off their house hunting earlier in the year due to the pandemic and have since been stepping back in. I am so inspired to see the see the strength of our Anthem market, especially because of the uncertainty in the world, the fact that our inventory has been painfully low, and that prices have been on the rise, but more on that later.
If I had to guess, I think we will see sales go back to ‘normal’ levels in October, November, and December. I did the research for this video on October 13, and at that point Anthem had 29 closings in October so far. While there are typically more closings at the end of the month, I don’t think it will be enough to push us into ‘record-breaking’ territory again.
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
Next, let’s take a look at the average sale prices in Anthem, month over month. When looking at this graph, I want you to focus on the dark purple line in the middle. This is the average sales price. The pink line on top is the high, while the grey line on the bottom is the low.
As you can see the average sales price in Anthem has by and large been increasing steadily since the start of 2018. As discussed in our previous video, the spike in March 2020 can largely be attributed to one sale in Anthem Country Club that exceeded $1 million. It was not indicative of a dramatic appreciation in prices in Anthem as a whole.
In September 2019 the average sales price was roughly $386,000, and at the end of September this year we had an average of roughly $410,000. That suggests an appreciation of 6.4% in property values year-over-year. Interestingly, this is lower the average increase in sales price year-over-year for the Phoenix Metro Area as a whole.
While it’s hard to quantify the impact of the uncertainty this year, it is clear that the market is strong and resilient.
Seller’s in Anthem can find comfort in the appreciation in their home’s value, while buyers are pleased to see that Anthem homes are still more affordable than homes in other parts of the valley. Our hope is that we’ll see a more modest and sustainable growth in prices through the remainder of 2020. Normally, I would say that we might even see a little dip in the average sale price, but given the uncharacteristic nature of this year, I’m not willing to say that.
That being said, I think we’ll still be in a strong Seller’s market for the foreseeable future. If you’d like to learn more about the differences between buyer’s and seller’s markets, and what it means for you, click to watch this video in the cards
AVERAGE SALE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
Average sales price only says so much, and it can’t really account for the difference between a mansion and a starter home. As REALTORS® we often like to look at the average price per square foot when looking at the state of the market. This can create a more level comparison between properties, but it’s by no means a perfect comparison.
On this graph, much like the last, I want you to focus on the gray line in the middle. This line shows the average sale price per square foot in Anthem month over month, while the pink line up top shows the high, and the purple line on the bottom shows the low.
As you can see prices grew at a stable and slower rate through 2018. They ramped up slightly in 2019, and then grew even more rapidly in 2020, with the exception of May 2020, which saw a slight dip, and June 2020 which saw a spike.
Year-over-year the average sales price per square foot in Anthem is up. In September 2019 it was roughly $166, and by the end of September 2020 it was up to nearly $183 per square foot. This indicates an increase of 10% year-over-year. Again, this is lower than the appreciation we saw across the whole Phoenix Metro Area. This continues to make Anthem very attractive to buyers.
Much like the average sales price, we expect sale price per square foot to continue a steady increase through to the end of 2020 and into the beginning of 2021. Again, our hope is that this increase will occur at a slower and more sustainable rate.
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
Another interesting statistic is average cumulative days on market. This gives an indication of how long a home sat on the market before closing. It’s important to note that this statistic is also imperfect. If a home is marked as ‘Pending’ when it goes under contract it stops accumulating days on the market. However, if a property is marked ‘UCB’, ‘Under Contract Accepting Backups’, or ‘CCBS’, ‘Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale’ it continues to accrue days on market until the day of closing. This figure can still give us a good sense of how long homes are sitting on the market here in beautiful Anthem, Arizona.
As you can see on this graph, the days on market has fluctuated quite a bit since 2018. I would be hard-pressed to say that this follows any sort of annual pattern, and would be inclined to say it’s more closely related to the amount of inventory, or in our case the lack of inventory. That being said, I think we can all agree that this graph shows the average days on market in a state of freefall since September 2019. What does this mean? It means that, on average, homes are selling faster when they hit the market today, than at the start of the year.
If you watched my last market update you might remember my thoughts about the average days on market being 47 at the time. Especially when the average loan is currently taking anywhere from 30-45 days to fund. I forecasted a leveling off, in anticipation that the number couldn’t realistically get much lower. Trust 2020 to blow that thought out of the water. At the end of September 2020 we were down to an average of 36 days on market. It’s crazy! This means, in many cases, we are still seeing homes going under contract within days of hitting the market.
This might seem counter intuitive. Prices were higher AND the homes were selling faster! The piece that’s missing in this picture is that inventory continues to be uncharacteristically low in Anthem. The low supply may have driven the prices up and forced people to make quicker decisions when they found the right house. Thus the continued decline in the average number of days on market.
Even though I wasn’t exactly right with my prediction last time, I’m doubling down! I suspect we’ll either see this number level off for the remainder of 2020, or we may even see a slight increase. Particularly, if we can get a bit more inventory in the next couple of months.
LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO
Lastly, people are always curious about how close homes sell to their list price. In 2018, homes sold for an average of 98% of their list price. In 2019, homes sold for an average of 99% of list price. So far, in 2020, homes have again been selling for an average of 99% of their list price. There has been no change in this number since our July update. Boring, I know.
Some buyers may find this disheartening, as they feel like there’s little room to negotiate, and in some cases that may be true. But, it doesn’t account for the fact that some homes are priced too high when they first hit the market and they don’t sell until they’ve been reduced to within 1% of the market value. You’re probably sick of hearing us say this, but it just speaks to making sure that you are working with an agent who has local expertise and knows the value of homes in an area. This is important for both buyers and sellers.
Long story short, the Anthem market is resilient and it is set to close out 2020 strong. If I’m being honest, the shortage of inventory is getting a little old, but we have still been getting our buyers into incredible homes every month. If you’re buying there are still plenty of opportunities to be had, you just need to act quickly. I’m serious, if you see a home you like, no dilly-dallying. You need to have your REALTOR® and lender lined up and ready to go.
If you’re thinking about selling, you haven’t missed the wave. Your home is still appreciating, and if you’re willing to price your home properly up front, it could be sold within a matter of days. So, get packing.
There you have it! Are you thinking about purchasing an Anthem home before 2020 is through? Or if you already live here, are you thinking about capitalizing on the strong seller’s market? Overall, it’s still a very exciting time to be living and working in the community we love so much. If you have any questions on how these numbers impact you specifically, please let me know. You can always email us at Team@WiseMoveAZ.com.
If all of this has you thinking, ‘yeah, I could consider a move to Anthem’, then you’ll definitely want to download our guide to HOA fees throughout Anthem. You can download your free copy here.
Lastly, if you’d like to learn a little bit more about all of the different areas within Anthem, click to watch this video; or if you’re looking for pro tips for buying an Anthem home, click to watch this video.
Enjoy those and I’ll see YOU next Thursday!